Basic Principles of Futurology

BASIC PRINCIPLES OF FUTUROLOGY

WHY TO SPECULATE ON FUTURE

1. To understand. Events happened might be understood easier by understanding those to happen.

2. In order to disallow mortgage of future by someone. This is the problem for next three centuries: Neo-informatic-cognitive fascism: to create an information vacuum.

3. Definitely not to determine the future.

4. Since it is the most attractive problem epistemologically, i.e. for navigating towards intelligence that is impossible to capture.

5. Brain will be more sensitive by creating ideas that are proven or not. Since the brain will learn to think in a sophisticated manner.

6. Not because of the path of the Roman Club. Future is not estimated to direct the mass [crowd?].

7. Not to sell figures. Acts of the World Future Association are shameful (with the softest word). (Yearly turnover of future estimation job in US is said to be about 200 billion dollars in 1998.)

8. In order to take notes. Future of today will be the past in future. Brief records allow future people to avoid making our mistakes.

HOW TO ESTIMATE FUTURE

9. Future estimation is made in specific locations/moments with certain intervals oriented to finalization of certain nodal events. Amplitude of the oscillation is the maximum of uncertainty. Nodes are the minimum uncertainty but the amplitude limit is not necessarily zero.

10. Irrelevant indicators are excluded. Wavelength (: emotional/ subjective behavior of the historian) of the phase conjugation beam (: mind with historical consciousness) affects the panorama (: paints in a certain color). Relevant indicators are used with quite narrow (about 1%) sampling.

11. Estimating the future is not determining it. Sometimes 100% intervention causes a 0 result and sometimes 0 intervention causes 100% (perfects and desired) result.

12. Simplest method: Data and trends in the statistics books are taken. A maximum, a medium and a minimum estimate are made. The results are 95% accurate. In case of an exception, it means that the equations will be changed anyway.

13. Moderately difficult method: the big numbers theory is applied. In history, iterations, discontinuities, and ups and downs always exist. Simulations (extrapolations and interpolations) of similar examples are applied also to future.

14. Most difficult method: To take a very decisive decision at a very narrow space. E.g., selecting to save a Jew or Marxist, although they are both wrong before the 2nd World War.

15. Leading cases: An inspiration from the law. Even if it is a wrong estimation (decision / selection), to accept the example because a same / similar one was applied previously.

16. Act of future estimation also affects interpretation of the past. As a matter of fact, the same past was interpreted in different ways in the past. Similarly, the future can be interpreted and estimated in different ways.

17. Samples: Who will win the 1999 elections? As a result of interaction of macro-political powers in highly complex relations, Apo was arrested in February 1999. Certainly, this made DSP the first party. While the possibility was a DSP-ANAP coalition before this event, now a DSP power may be expected.

18. Continuation: Who will be elected as the President in 2000? A sensational answer: Rahşan Ecevit. Logical answer: Bülent Ecevit. (Note: I didn't know that Ecevit was not a university graduate, which is a requirement to be elected as the President.) Explanation: Demirel wants himself to stay, but the army does not want him. And Demirel, in part as an obligation, will pay his debt of gratitude, because Ecevit could well try to bring him down.

19. Finally: Will Demirel turn back to politics? If he stays alive and if he can, he certainly thinks of it but realization possibility of this plan is too low.

(February 1999)